Redrawn Valley: Lincoln and Gray Face Off in Tight 13th District Race

In the 2024 election for California's 13th Congressional District, Democrat Adam Gray defeated Republican John Duarte by 187 votes out of 210,921 ballots cast. That narrow margin now defines the stakes for the November 3 contest, where Gray faces Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton. The two candidates agree that affordability is the central issue but propose different solutions to address it.

Lincoln, a former Marine and pastor, is a local figure in Stockton. Gray, a former state assemblymember from Merced, may be less familiar to some residents even though his district now includes downtown Stockton. Lincoln initially sought a rematch against Rep. Josh Harder in the 9th District but switched to the 13th after Proposition 50 redrew the boundaries. The new district covers the agricultural heart of the San Joaquin Valley and extends south along Interstate 5 to the Coalinga area.

State records from 2023 indicate that 42.3% of voters in the pre-redistricting district were registered Democrats and 28.5% were Republicans. Financial resources also favor the incumbent. As of June 30, the latest Federal Election Commission data shows Gray holds $4.2 million in contributions and loans. Lincoln has raised $2.2 million.

Lincoln holds the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who granted him "Complete and Total Endorsement" on Truth Social in December. Lincoln describes the support as making him "honored and thankful" and features it on his campaign site. He recorded a video for the National Republican Congressional Committee detailing his time as a Marine who protected the president and his work as a pastor. According to his LinkedIn profile, Lincoln served in the White House Military Office from 2001 to 2005 and was executive pastor at LifeSong Ministries through 2020.

Lincoln argues he will "restore the American dream" by making home ownership more affordable. At a September rally, he pledged to lower the cost of gas, food, and utilities, create jobs, cut taxes, and expand healthcare access. He accused Gray of voting to raise taxes and noted that Gray increased the gas tax by more than 113% per gallon during his time in the state legislature. Gray counters that he worked to reverse Republican Medicaid cuts and limited Trump's ability to impose tariffs without congressional approval.

Gray, a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, positions himself as an independent voice rather than a partisan one. He has called Trump's deportation policies "irresponsible, reckless, dangerous." Democrats are betting that high gas prices and immigration enforcement will hurt Lincoln, while Republicans point to Lincoln's local name recognition and the president's backing.

The district's composition includes a mix of agricultural and urban areas. Gray introduced a measure to reduce regulations around thermal energy. Lincoln emphasizes his experience in local government and military service. Both candidates are campaigning in a region where economic concerns dominate voter priorities.