Serbia Ballot Opens With Student-Led List Poised to Deny Ruling Party a Fourth Term

Serbia holds its parliamentary election on Sunday, October 25, with the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) facing a challenge from a slate organized by a student protest movement that has demonstrated against the government for nearly two years.

The Student List staged its closing rally in Belgrade on Thursday evening, drawing thousands of people who had walked for days to the capital from across the country. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told attendees that the marchers had crossed the country, visited villages and neighborhoods, and confirmed support for their effort. Aleksandar Cupic, a professor of transport and traffic engineering and a candidate on the list, said the gathering "smells like freedom." The event ended with a kolo, a traditional circle dance.

The protest movement began after a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station collapsed in November 2024, killing 16 people. Candidates have framed the vote as a way to address corruption and seek accountability for the collapse, which became a reference point for institutional breakdown, while setting aside ideological, social and foreign-policy disputes that have divided Serbian politics.

Dusan Spasojevic, a political scientist, said the election is the first since Aleksandar Vucic took office in 1012 to be competitive with an uncertain result. He said the movement has drawn substantial backing and that polling points to more than 40% of the vote.

The SNS held its own closing rally nearby, presenting a vote for the party as a path to stability, continuity and prosperity, and a change of government as a route to chaos. Vucic told supporters that opponents had sought to undermine the country on foreign orders and had attacked the party with billions of euros.

Monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 instances of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week of the campaign, including confrontations, attacks on campaigners and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA also said opposition activists, particularly those connected to the Student List, were subject to surveillance and police questioning, and that police were at times slow to protect candidates and supporters. CRTA told DW the campaign was not free or fair, citing a narrowing of freedoms and inequality. Its report found almost three-quarters of airtime for political players on national television went to government representatives, while more than 80% of coverage of the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member who described pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. DW also heard from anonymous sources that voters were offered between €30 and €150, and in some cases holiday packages for families, in exchange for votes for the SNS. Independent media have reported on alleged links between people tied to the party and criminal networks, though Spasojevic doubts these reports will alter the outcome.

Authorities have warned for weeks that students, allegedly assisted by foreign intelligence services, are preparing street violence, and several people have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances on election night. Spasojevic said a decisive win for either side would be the best result, but polling points to a narrow margin and a likely post-election crisis. He said a narrow SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, and the movement has vowed to defend every vote.

Spasojevic said the international response, particularly from the European Union, could matter in preventing escalation and in persuading authorities to accept defeat and avoid a heavy-handed response to protests. An EU Commission spokesperson told DW that key recommendations on improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented and said democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process. Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012.