Israelis Cast Ballots in Tight Race Where Neither Bloc Sees Clear Majority

Israeli citizens cast their votes on Tuesday in a national election that polling suggests will leave both major contenders short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Exit polls are scheduled for release at 22:00 local time, though early data from Friday indicated a near neck-and-neck contest between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Neither political camp is projected to secure a majority, a result that often precedes months of complex coalition negotiations in Israel's proportional representation system. The campaign centered heavily on national security, with the opposition bloc criticizing Netanyahu for the security failures that allowed Hamas to attack on October 7, 2023. That attack killed nearly 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages being taken to Gaza.

Netanyahu framed himself as the security expert, citing strategic victories in regional conflicts and his relationship with US President Donald Trump. Eisenkot, leading the newly formed Yashar Party, positioned himself as the face of a change bloc. This coalition includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, right-winger Avigdor Lieberman, and left-leaning former general Yair Golan.

The race also touched on domestic governance issues. Opponents pointed to Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial, which he denies, and his push for judicial reforms that sparked mass protests. The issue of military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men also divided voters, as the government has struggled to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring their service.

In the final days of the campaign, reports emerged that Netanyahu sought last-minute military action against Iran before the vote. Channel 12 reported on Sunday that he was opposed by military chief Eyal Zamir, while CNN reported on Monday that Trump refused to approve new strikes. Netanyahu denied both accounts. He also generated attention by posting an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv, a move Eisenkot called hysterical.

The war in Gaza continues to shape the political landscape. Israel has struck the territory almost daily since last year's ceasefire, targeting Hamas operatives. According to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry, more than 74,000 people have been killed since the war began. Eisenkot pledged to end Hamas rule within 18 months, potentially through a US-led peace plan or military means, while largely supporting settlements in the West Bank.

Coalition arithmetic remains complex. All but one leading Jewish party has ruled out working with the two Arab party blocs, though these parties could theoretically serve as kingmakers. Lieberman has ruled out joining an Eisenkot-led minority government propped up informally by Arab parties. This leaves little room for maneuver if neither bloc reaches the 61-seat threshold.

Seventy thousand Israelis reportedly flew home from abroad to vote, while hundreds of thousands cast ballots for the first time. Soldiers and reservists also voted, but many of their ballots will not be counted until Wednesday. This delay could provide a late boost to right-wing parties that enjoy strong support among that demographic.

If no bloc secures a majority and a minority government cannot be formed, Israel faces political deadlock. In that scenario, new elections would be called, and Netanyahu would remain as interim prime minister. Between 2019 and 2022, the country held five separate elections as parties struggled to cooperate.