Iran conflict enters third phase after Nov 3 vote, analysts warn

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, said a third round of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran appears almost inevitable after the November 3 midterm elections. He stated that fighting will likely resume once the ballots are counted, marking the next phase of a conflict that has spanned 18 months.

Citrinowicz, who now works at the Institute for National Security Studies, expects this new phase to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communication lines. He specifically identified internet cables running beneath the Strait of Hormuz as key targets. He also suggested Iran might use its land army to launch limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to damage the American economy.

The U.S. and Israel have already fought two distinct wars against Iran under President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first conflict started in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites, lasted 12 days, and ended with a fragile ceasefire. Fighting returned in February following a major U.S. military buildup, beginning with Israeli attacks on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Since the summer truce broke down, direct strikes have paused, but economic pressure continues. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran was trying to raise oil prices before the midterms by creating "fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that these attacks aim to force Washington to meet Iranian demands.

Iran seeks relief from sanctions, reparations for damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iran's leadership to reinforce its revolutionary ideology. She predicted retaliation would come through proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, targeting economic hubs such as airports.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy is not dead but has narrowed due to Trump's maximalist goals. He stated that Iran will only compromise under severe economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. Sadjadpour noted that asking Iran to change its identity through military force will not succeed.

The human cost remains high. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media count over 4,000 in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is not known if Trump will approve it.

Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by forming an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation could combine with an Iranian development that Netanyahu might inflate, leading to an unnecessary attack.