USC stuns Ohio State as Big Ten upsets reshape playoff odds
Three ranked Big Ten teams fell to unranked opponents Saturday, forcing ESPN analysts to scramble their Week 9 College Football Playoff projections.
By Noor Rossi ·
Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans delivered a shock to the college football establishment on Saturday, defeating No. 2 Ohio State at home. The victory marked Riley’s first win against a top-five AP team as the head coach of the Trojans. The result capped a chaotic week for the Big Ten, where three ranked programs suffered losses to unranked rivals.
The upsets were not isolated to one conference. Unranked Syracuse and Oregon secured home conference wins, while the state of Iowa saw both its major programs triumph. Iowa State defeated No. 24 Oklahoma State, and Iowa beat No. 25 Wisconsin. These five upsets against ranked opponents mirror the volatility seen in Week 8, further complicating the path to the postseason.
The 2026 season features a new format for the 12-team College Football Playoff. Automatic bids go to the four Power 4 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 6 team. The remaining seven slots are allocated to the next highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame holds a guaranteed spot if it finishes in the top 12. The four highest-ranked teams, regardless of conference status, receive first-round byes.
ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released updated predictions for the first-round games scheduled for December 18 and 19. Bonagura projects No. 12 Boise State to host No. 5 BYU, while Schlabach sees the Broncos facing No. 5 Kentucky. The two analysts also diverge on the Notre Dame matchup, with Bonagura placing No. 11 Ohio State at the Fighting Irish and Schlabach selecting No. 11 Indiana.
The quarterfinals begin on December 30 with the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona. Bonagura predicts No. 8 Kentucky will face No. 1 Miami, whereas Schlabach has No. 5 Kentucky playing No. 4 Utah. The final four games are set for January 14 and 15, leading to the national championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on January 25. Both analysts agree that No. 1 Miami will be a contender for the title, though they differ on the opponent, with Bonagura picking No. 2 Utah and Schlabach selecting No. 2 Georgia.
Bowl season officially starts on December 12 with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The season concludes with the CFP National Championship in Las Vegas. Matchups will be finalized on Selection Day, December 6, after which the analysts will lock in their predictions for the remaining games.
Source: ESPN
