EU leaders ready to ask UK for larger Ukraine share

European Union leaders will ask Prime Minister Andy Burnham to increase Britain's contribution to Ukraine's defense budget when he attends a summit in Brussels on November 20. The meeting comes as Kyiv faces a projected €70 billion shortfall in 2027. Brussels argues that major G7 nations, including the UK, Canada, and Japan, must do more to support the war effort.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, will make this case directly to Burnham. She will also meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at a summit in Montreal next week. In both instances, the goal is to secure additional financial aid to cover Ukraine's growing costs.

The timing creates pressure for the British government. Chancellor John Healey is preparing his first budget next week. He is weighing requests for increased spending against rising borrowing costs and a worsening economic outlook. Healey stated earlier this month that he is working on different ways to step up support for Ukraine, including military, diplomatic, and economic measures.

Ukraine estimates it needs €70 billion in 2027 to pay for defense and civilian needs. The EU and its member states currently cover 80% of these costs. The commission considers a fair share for the EU to be two-thirds, with other allies covering the remaining third. Von der Leyen told reporters last week that the EU will continue to lead but urgently needs other partners to step up.

The EU agreed to a €90 billion loan for Ukraine last year. This loan was designed to cover two-thirds of Kyiv's funding needs for 2026 and 2027. However, costs continue to rise as Russia escalates its attacks in the war's fifth winter. Officials are prioritizing the UK, Canada, and Japan but may also seek aid from Switzerland, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

Britain has committed £25 billion to Ukraine, including £16 billion in military aid. This makes the UK the fourth largest donor behind the US, Germany, and France. Weighted by GDP, the UK contributed 0.86% of national income. This is lower than France at 1.1% and Germany at 1.5%, and far below Denmark at 4.2% and Estonia at 3.8%. The UK's share aligns more closely with France and Germany once their contributions to EU programs are accounted for.

Ukraine is one of several topics at the November summit. Leaders are expected to finalize three agreements: a food and animal health deal to reduce paperwork, a link between EU and UK emissions trading schemes, and a youth mobility scheme for people aged 18 to 30. The commission proposed deferring the issue of university tuition fees to technical talks within six months. The UK wants to charge EU students the international rate, while the EU prefers the pre-Brexit status quo.

EU diplomats believe they retain leverage because the other two deals will not take effect until a youth mobility agreement is acceptable. One EU diplomat described the three elements as a gift to the UK, but not a massive one. A second diplomat noted that there is no clear majority among the 27 member states to drop the tuition issue for six months.