46.3 Percent: Final CNT/MDA Poll Shows Bolsonaro's 1.3 Point Lead

A CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday places Flavio Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent in the final days of the Brazilian presidential campaign, giving him a 1.3 point advantage over incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The survey, which carries a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, indicates the two candidates remain statistically tied as voters prepare to head to the polls on Sunday.

Lula, an 80-year-old leader seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, addressed supporters on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. Wearing a red hat and waving a flag from a campaign truck, he focused his final speech on his rival's relationship with the United States. "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag," Lula said to the crowd.

In the southeastern state of Minas Gerais, Bolsonaro supporters gathered for their own final rally. Hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts participated in the event. Ebert Dorigo, one of the attendees, told AFP that Lula's Workers' Party had fostered dependence on state aid. "The values we uphold are nation and family," Dorigo said, arguing that welfare policies obscured the importance of hard work.

The first round of voting in October saw Bolsonaro secure 47 percent of the vote against Lula's 45 percent. Previous data from the same CNT/MDA poll one week ago showed a slightly wider gap, with Bolsonaro leading 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. The current results suggest the race has tightened further in the final week.

The campaign has featured sharp divisions over economic policy and public safety. Bolsonaro has pledged to build hundreds of thousands of new prison cells and reduce government spending. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup following his 2022 defeat. The two main candidates held their final debate on Friday, trading accusations regarding the country's economic state while adopting a calmer tone than in previous rounds.

Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the difficulty of the choice facing many voters. "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil," she told AFP.