Moscow Airports Shut for Nine Hours Daily in October

Moscow's four main airports closed for up to nine hours on some days in October.

Independent investigative outlet Agentstvo tracked the disruptions. The data shows Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo suspended operations almost every day this month. The closures were not uniform. On peak days, the airspace remained shut for the maximum duration. This pattern has intensified over recent weeks. The daily interruptions have become a routine part of air travel in the capital region.

The current situation follows a specific strategy outlined by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In early September, he stated that Ukraine aimed to make Russian airspace unsafe. He directed this message to airlines, insurers, and travelers. Zelenskyy declared, "Russian airspace will become completely unsafe." The following day, Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. This move aligns with the long-standing closure of Ukrainian airspace, which has been shut since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The mechanism behind the closures is a procedure managed by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. The rule is called the "carpet" protocol. It mandates an immediate closure of airspace if an aircraft violates boundaries, weapons are deployed, or unidentified objects appear. Once triggered, strict limits apply to all air traffic. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, explained the logic. He told DW that "essentially, every drone poses a military threat." He compared the disruption to the actions of Yemen's Houthis, noting that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthi group.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev assessed the feasibility of the campaign. He stated that Ukraine faces little difficulty in disrupting air traffic around Moscow. This holds true even though Ukraine has not yet fully closed Russian airspace as intended. The "carpet" protocol requires only simple drones to trigger. These drones do not need warheads or long range. Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster wrote in The Atlantic in October that these efforts are "just getting started." He cited well-informed sources for this assessment.

Matvejev argued that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against these drones. He said, "If it were possible to shoot them down, they would have done so by now." He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if it possessed them. Both experts warned about risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the "carpet" protocol. This could raise the danger of deadly incidents. He referenced the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. Investigators determined that a Russian air-defense missile, fired to counter drones, hit that aircraft. The crash killed 38 people.

Matvejev noted that little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocol since that accident. He distinguished between different types of threats. A low-flying drone that is visually identified and shot with a machine gun poses an extremely low risk to nearby aircraft. Missiles present a different set of risks. Defects in mass production could send a missile toward a nearby airliner. He added that drones need no explosives to cause harm. A collision with an airplane can be serious. A drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must be fairly large, he said, "weighting dozens of kilograms."

Disruptions have extended beyond Moscow. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023. Drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports. In September, Zelenskyy said Kyiv's airport and Boryspil, near the capital, were hit. Foreign airlines must now decide whether to keep flying to Russia. Laneckij said this decision depends on three factors. These are the military threat, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they could sharply raise premiums. This would send ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk. Many airlines have gone out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij said, "Whether they stay or not depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced."